Possible impacts of anomalous Arctic sea ice melting on summer atmosphere

Abstract

AbstractArctic sea ice melting and its possible impacts on climate variability and extreme weather events in the mid‐latitudes have been of wide concern over the past two decades. Compared with the impacts of sea ice melting on winter, its impacts on summer atmospheric circulation variability and extreme weather events have received less attention, and it is not clear whether the rapid sea ice melting can affect summer temperature and precipitation in the mid‐latitudes. Through observational analyses and simulation experiments forced by observed Arctic sea ice concentration, this study investigates possible impacts of anomalous summer sea ice melting on air temperature, frequency of heatwaves, precipitation, and East Asian summer monsoon variability. It is found that the enhanced summer sea ice melting has occurred since 2007 and dynamically corresponded to the positive phase of the summer Arctic dipole anomaly. Simulation experiments showed that the ensemble means of anomalous summer sea ice melting cases significantly increase surface air temperatures (SATs) and frequencies of heatwaves in the mid‐ and high‐latitudes of both Asia and North America, and decreases SATs in Europe and parts of the Asian continent. Anomalous summer sea ice melting increases summer precipitation in the circumpolar region, mid‐latitudes of East Asia, and the Northwestern Pacific and significantly decreases precipitation in mid‐ and low‐latitudes of North America. In addition, anomalous sea ice melting in simulations deepens the thermal depression in East Asia and strengthens East Asian summer monsoon and its variability. These model results suggest that anomalous sea ice melting may exacerbate impacts of global warming on summer atmosphere over Asia and North America though its impact may not be dominant due to atmospheric internal variability and impacts of other factors.