Abstract
Spatial heterogeneous slip dislocation models from seismic waveform inversions of several moderate to large earthquakes in the past decade in the Taiwan area are used to calculate stress transfer conditions associated with aftershock distributions. Regardless of the possibility of aftershocks along different fault planes to the mainshock, stress change calculations for optimum orientation planes after the mainshock show a great degree of consistency in positive stress change to aftershock distribution. Toward the possibility of forecasting aftershock distributions from stress changes due to the mainshock, we considered homogeneous fault models on the basis of earthquake scaling law to produce rapid stress change calculations. Stress changes from homogeneous and heterogeneous fault models show similar patterns. They both show good correlation with aftershock distributions, even for the complex fault rupture of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. Our results, thus, support the possibility of forecasting aftershock distributions using mainshock stress changes. Once the location, magnitude and focal mechanism of an earthquake become available, stress change calculations can be carried out to forecast aftershock distribution for earthquake hazard mitigation.
Highlights
Large earthquakes yield loss of life and building damage
The correlation between results obtained using homogeneous slip fault models and the heterogeneous slip fault models discussed in Section 3.1, suggests that it is possible to use rapid stress change calculations based on homogenous slip models using scaling law to forecast aftershock distributions
Coulomb stress changes associated with earthquakes influence the occurrence of future earthquakes
Summary
Large earthquakes yield loss of life and building damage. large aftershocks sometimes compound a disaster following a mainshock. Aftershocks usually locate in regions where Coulomb stress change has increased during the mainshock These studies allow for the possibility of predicting aftershock distributions from stress transfer. If stress transfer studies can be conducted soon after a mainshock, the forecasting of possible aftershock distributions might be able to reduce the damage caused by large aftershocks. In view of this possibility, we investigate several moderate to large inland Taiwan earthquakes with regard to their aftershock distributions and corresponding Coulomb stress change due to the mainshock. Comparison of stress transfer associated with these fault models and aftershock distributions allows for the possibility of forecasting aftershock distribution through rapid stress change calculations following a mainshock
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