Abstract
Floods are defined as disasters that occur as a result of a natural formation and cause negative effects on society life and economy. Floods that cause the greatest loss of life and property after earthquakes among the natural disasters experienced in our country, unplanned urbanization caused by the increasing population, uncontrolled settlements in river beds, and changing climate have increased its impact and frequency of occurrence over time. Therefore, it is important to estimate the magnitude of floods and the frequency of their occurrence in the most accurate way. This research aims to perform at-site and regional frequency analysis with L-moment methods in the Susurluk Basin. For regional frequency analysis, annual maximum and partial duration flood series were obtained using the data from 22 flow observation stations selected from the basin. In the first stage, the stations in the region were considered as a whole and the stations were found discordant with each other. Hierarchical cluster analysis was performed with the help of various physiological-hydrological characteristics of the stations located in the basin with geographic information systems, and the basin was divided into 2 regions, but homogeneity was still not achieved. Therefore, the basin is divided into 3 regions according to the dendrogram. There was no discordancy in all three regions and homogeneity was achieved. After achieving homogeneity, the most suitable frequency distribution was determined for each region. In addition, L-moments and L-moment ratios, probability distributions, and quantile discharges of the annual maximum and partial duration flood series were estimated for at-site frequency analysis. As a result, in regional flood frequency analysis, generalized logistic distribution provided the best fit in the annual maximum series, while Generalized Pareto and Pearson type 3 provided the best-fit distributions for the first and second regions in the partial duration series, respectively, in addition, generalized normal provided the best fit in the third region. It was concluded that it would be useful to use partial duration flood series as well as annual maximum series in the flood frequency analysis of the Susurluk basin.
Published Version
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