Positive or negative coordination? Spatiotemporal coupling analysis between economic growth and carbon neutrality in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

The Chinese government has committed to achieving a carbon emission peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The Yellow River Basin is an important economic region and ecological protection basin tying nine provinces in Eastern, Central, and Western China. The heterogeneity of economies, industrial structures, resource endowment, locations, social environments, and other aspects of the various regions in the Yellow River Basin make this region important for achieving the government’s carbon commitment. In this study, 54 cities in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin were chosen as research areas. A model that described the coupling coordination between the regions’ economic growth and carbon neutrality based on the GDP, carbon emission, and carbon sequestration data was presented. The spatial patterns and trends of economic growth, carbon neutrality and coupling coordination between the two for various regions of the Yellow River Basin from year 2001 to 2021 were analyzed empirically using exploratory spatial data analysis method. The results showed that, during the analyzed period, the economic growth of the Yellow River Basin transitioned from high-speed growth to low-speed, and the annual growth rate of carbon neutrality index slowed down gradually then increased slightly. The coupling coordination generally trended toward a better direction. In recent years, the coupling coordination in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin was better than that in the upper and middle reaches (mainly Inner Mongolia and some cities in Ningxia and Gansu province). The spatial heterogeneity will provide a theoretical basis for the overall planning of basin’s ecological priorities and low-carbon development, and is of great importance for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality.