Posiadanie broni palnej a poziom przestępczości z jej użyciem w Polsce

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to attempt to answer the question whether there exists a real relationship between gun ownership and crime rate. The study uses a statistical method; in particular, it compares the dynamics of the number of gun permits issued and the number of crimes committed with the use of guns. Pearson correlation coefficient is calculated. Between these categories of data there appears to be a very strong correlation (r = 0.8954), especially in the period from 2002 to 2013. Next, data on the number of gun crimes and the number of all crimes reported in 2002–2017 are compared and a positive correlation is revealed (r = 0.4590). When the years 2016–2017 are excluded – in this period a sharp increase the number of gun crimes was observed – the correlation coefficient is as high as r = 0.9296. The research suggests that it is unlikely that the number of gun permits directly affects the number of gun crimes. However, the reverse relationship cannot be ruled out. Perhaps the decrease in the number of crimes in general and the resulting greater sense of security result in a lower number of gun permit applications or a lower number of permits issued.