Abstract
BackgroundMen who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan.Methods and FindingsAn internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM.ConclusionsThe estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.
Highlights
HIV/AIDS is a major global health challenge, with 33.3 million people estimated to be living with HIV as of the end of 2009, according to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) [1]
The estimated personal network size and Men who have sex with men (MSM) prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method
Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods
Summary
HIV/AIDS is a major global health challenge, with 33.3 million people estimated to be living with HIV as of the end of 2009, according to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) [1]. In Japan, the estimated number of people living with HIV is 8,100 in a country with a total population of 127.5 million as of 2009 [2] This figure translates to a low-level epidemic, with an estimated HIV prevalence of less than 0.01%, the number has increased from 6,500 in 2001. The populations most at risk for HIV infection, such as sex workers, people who inject drugs, and MSM, are often hard to reach and present significant size-estimation challenges. The global data on MSM population sizes, for example, is insufficient, especially in low- and middle-income countries [2,5] For these reasons, UNAIDS, WHO and their partners have explored various methods for estimating the size of key hard-to-reach populations, including MSM, that are at high risk for HIV [6]. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
