Population Size, Age Structure, and Sex Composition Effects on Official Crime in Canada

Abstract

Canada, along with most other Western, industrialized countries, has experienced a dramatic increase in both the overall volume and the rate of official crime, as well as significant increases in the amount of female crime since the mid-1950's. Several authors have suggested that much of this increase in official crime is related to major demographic fluctuations, such as the post-war “baby-boom.” Specifically, in this paper it is maintained that a large proportion of the increase in the overall amount of crime is due to both absolute as well as relative increases in those segments of the population which have high a priori crime rates. Using 1957 as a base year, the volume of convictions for criminal offenders in Canada is standardized for population size, age structure, and sex composition effects. It was found that approximately one-half of the increase in volume of crime could be attributed to overall population growth. The impact of age structure and sex composition was not unambiguous, however, with the period 1958–1964 showing a greater sensitivity to these variables than the period 1965–1973.