Population sensitivities of animals to chronic ionizing radiation-model predictions from mice to elephant

Abstract

Model predictions of population response to chronic ionizing radiation (endpoint ‘morbidity’) were made for 11 species of warm-blooded animals, differing in body mass and lifespan – from mice to elephant. Predictions were made also for 3 bird species (duck, pigeon, and house sparrow). Calculations were based on analytical solutions of the mathematical model, simulating a population response to low-LET ionizing radiation in an ecosystem with a limiting resource (Sazykina, Kryshev, 2016). Model parameters for different species were taken from biological and radioecological databases; allometric relationships were employed for estimating some parameter values. As a threshold of decreased health status in exposed populations (‘health threshold’), a 10% reduction in self-repairing capacity of organisms was suggested, associated with a decline in ability to sustain environmental stresses. Results of the modeling demonstrate a general increase of population vulnerability to ionizing radiation in animal species of larger size and longevity. Populations of small widespread species (mice, house sparrow; body mass 20–50 g), which are characterized by intensive metabolism and short lifespan, have calculated ‘health thresholds’ at dose rates about 6.5–7.5 mGy day−1. Widespread animals with body mass 200–500 g (rat, common pigeon) – demonstrate ‘health threshold’ values at 4–5 mGy day−1. For populations of animals with body mass 2–5 kg (rabbit, fox, raccoon), the indicators of 10% health decrease are in the range 2–3.4 mGy day−1. For animals with body mass 40–100 kg (wolf, sheep, wild boar), thresholds are within 0.5–0.8 mGy day−1; for herbivorous animals with body mass 200–300 kg (deer, horse) – 0.5–0.6 mGy day−1. The lowest health threshold was estimated for elephant (body mass around 5000 kg) - 0.1 mGy day−1. According to the model results, the differences in population sensitivities of warm-blooded animal species to ionizing radiation are generally depended on the metabolic rate and longevity of organisms, also on individual radiosensitivity of biological tissues. The results of ‘health threshold’ calculations are formulated as a graded scale of wildlife sensitivities to chronic radiation stress, ranging from potentially vulnerable to more resistant species. Further studies are needed to expand the scale of population sensitivities to radiation, including other groups of wildlife - cold-blooded species, invertebrates, and plants.