Population Projection of Pakistan: What is there in 2028?

Abstract

Pakistan has been facing a massive population upheaval for the past three decades which needs to be tackled through a comprehensive, effective, and resourceful plan. This study aimed to build a methodology for population projection as an imperative step to address the population concerns for an inclusive socioeconomic development planning. The projections made in this study are based on three data sets of Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys (PDHS) and Pakistan Census Reports (PCR). Cohort Component Method is employed for projecting total population and population aggregates of young, working, and old aged people, women (in childbearing age)and sex ratio, crude birth and crude death rates, and population growth for the period 1998 to 2028. The empirical results exhibited that due to continuous drop-in total fertility rate, proportion of young and old aged group would likely to reduce, whereas working age population appeared to be increased. The percentage of reproductive women is projected to be increased, whereas sex ratio, crude birth and death rates are predicted to be decreased over time. A carefully drawn population policy must be focused on awareness about family planning programs to control an immense population growth in Pakistan.