Population Growth and Transitional Dynamics of Egypt Theoretical Analysis & Time Series Analysis from 1981 To 2007

Abstract

This paper tests the impact of the economic growth rate on the dynamism of the economy of Egypt. In this regard the paper applies the logic of the basic exogenous growth models and empirically controls for all other demographic factors that believed in their intertwined effects on the economic growth rate. The results show an evidence of the short run effect but the impact of the population growth rate on the time path of the economic growth rate vanishes over time. The paper gives a clear indication to policy makers in Egypt to modify their public policy toward the population growth and to adopt different apparoaches for resources balance rather than damping the population growth. The paper utilizes an intervention time series model with different steps to verify the adopted theoretical model.