Population growth and the demographic transition in Kenya.

Abstract

This paper focuses on patterns of population growth in Kenya. The historical pattern of population growth from the close of the nineteenth century to 1992 is explored in the first two major sections. Estimates of the annual rate of natural population growth have not exceeded 2.5 per cent prior to 1960. Since 1960 the annual natural population growth rate has increased from 3 per cent in 1962 to 3.8-3.9 per cent for the 1977-1990 period. The rate has fallen slightly to 3.6 per cent for 1992, and data from the 1989 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey indicate that the total fertility rate declined significantly during the 1980s. The applicability of demographic transition theory to the study of population growth and development in Kenya is addressed in the third section. A fourstage model grounded in the work of Petersen, Caldwell and Chesnais is developed and applied to Kenya. Kenya is observed to have passed through the underdeveloped stage characterised by increasing birth and death rates and entered the transition/developing stage during the 1980s. Issues concerning the prospects of substantial continued reductions in the fertility level are addressed in the concluding section.