Demographic Transition, Second

Abstract

The term Second Demographic Transition was introduced into demographic literature in 1986/87. By then it had become clear that the demographic developments observed in the countries of Northern and Western Europe since the mid-1960s followed a trajectory which would not lead to a new population equilibrium as the classical transition theory predicted. It seemed, instead, that dramatic changes in the components of population growth, and most notably unprecedented low levels of fertility, would engender population decline. This article briefly reviews the changes in family formation, contraception, fertility, mortality, and international migration characteristics of the Second Transition. It also highlights the marked differences in cultural representations which distinguishes the second transition from the first. The question whether the Second Demographic Transition is likely to be as universal and ubiquitous as the first, is reviewed by relating the second transition to the phenomenon of ‘postmodernization’ described for advanced industrial societies. The link between the two transitions is illustrated by means of a model displaying the course of the birth and death rates, the rate of natural population growth, and the net migration rate.