Abstract
This contribution explores the conceptual and empirical linkages between population dynamics and natural hazard risk management (NHRM). Following a review of the international scholarly literature, we conduct a mixed-methods approach in Austria, combining an online survey among policy makers and other stakeholders with a thematic analysis of policy documents. The aim is to investigate the practical relevance of socio-demographic change in Austria’s NHRM. The study shows that many hazard-prone regions in Austria face population change, in particular demographic ageing and population decline. In addition, our findings from the online survey demonstrate the relevance of population dynamics in NHRM, especially with regard to hazard response and recovery. Nonetheless, policy formulation in NHRM overwhelmingly disregards demographic change as a relevant factor. Accordingly, the study underscores the importance of future-oriented risk management strategies to better account for ongoing and expected socio-demographic changes.
Highlights
Hydro-meteorological events, including storms, floods, or landslides, globally account for the largest share of the reported economic losses due to natural hazards (Munich Re 2019)
We present the empirical findings concerning the interlinkages between population dynamics and natural hazard risk management (NHRM) in Austria
The most prominent gap appeared between the findings of our online survey, which pointed to a number of highly relevant interrelations between demographic change and NHRM that are present in scholarly literature, and the results of the analysis of Austria’s policy documents, which revealed only very few thematic overlaps between the two thematic areas
Summary
Hydro-meteorological events, including storms, floods, or landslides, globally account for the largest share of the reported economic losses due to natural hazards (Munich Re 2019). Apart from the likely effects of climate change (Blöschl et al 2019; IPCC 2012; Madsen et al 2014), land use change, often in combination with environmental degradation (e.g. of protective mangrove forests), and in particular settlement growth and land development in hazard areas, has been identified as key drivers for these events and their disastrous impacts (Jongman et al 2012; Pesaresi et al 2017). Usually investigate the impact of population growth on future levels of risk and the policy options to anticipate and adapt risk management strategies (Cammerer and Thieken 2013; Löschner et al 2017), while population decline–a demographic phenomenon faced by many rural and urban areas outside the booming agglomeration regions (CoR 2016), has remained outside the scientific and policy focus
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