Population change in Meso-America: The Tip of the demographic Iceberg

Abstract

This paper examines the demographic situation in Mexico and Central America (Meso-America) and looks at the momentum for growth implied by recent population shifts. Despite successes in reducing fertility levels in many Meso-American countries the dramatic declines in mortality among infants and children have given rise to a "death dearth" that is contributing to a new "baby boom" in these countries; thus the subtitle "The Tip of the Iceberg." The impacts of such population growth on education the economy and migration are considered in some detail. The anticipated inability of country economies to provide jobs for the thousands of young adults entering the labor force in future years could result in significant increases in the number seeking to migrate in a northerly direction. Thus the US is also vitally interested in the demographic shifts taking place south of its border. The need for a more unified regional approach to some of the social and economic problems facing these nations is pointed out as is the need for a more rational immigration policy on the part of the US in light of the potential increase in immigration in future years. (authors)