Population Change in Iran, 1966-86: A Stalled Demographic Transition?

Abstract

A researcher used censuses and surveys to analyze 1966-1976 and 1976-1986 population data to compare population growth and fertility of Iran under the Shah with those of theocratic Iran. Between 1966-1976 the government introduced policies which improved the legal and social status of women and promoted fertility control. These resulted in a reduction in the annual population growth rate from 3.1-2.7%. In fact the crude birth rate fell from 49-42.7. Yet the rural birth rate (49.1) was still 1 of the highest in the world. A rising age at marriage contributed to the fall in fertility. For example in 1966 46.5% of 15-19 year old women were married compared to 34.2% in 1976. In fact the singulate mean age of marriage increased from 18.4-19.7. Further the percentage of women of reproductive age who were married decreased 81-75% between 1966-1976. Moreover age specific fertility rates fell for all 20-40 year old women. Indeed total fertility declined from 7.7-6.3. This was more pronounced in urban areas (6.9-4.4). As a result of the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war population size increased rapidly from 33.7-49.4 million (1976-1986)--3.8% annual growth rate. Further the crude birth rate increased 12% (1986 47.6). In addition at least 1.8 million people from Afghanistan sought refuge in Iran. Moreover the age at 1st marriage was not any higher than in 1986 than it was in 1976. In fact the government reduced the legal age to 9 for females and 14 for males. Further it abolished the family planning council. In addition the proportion of 15-59 year old married women only decreased 3% between 1976-1986 compared to 6% between 1976-1986. Age specific fertility rates increased significantly especially for 40-44 year olds (32%). Further total fertility rose to 7 and the increase was especially high in urban areas (16% increase compared to 8% in rural areas). As of the end of 1991 there were indications that the government recognized the population problem and had taken steps to promote family planning.