Population and Economic Projections in the Yangtze River Basin Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Min Zhu,Jiaxi Tian,Fengying Zhang,Bin Zhu,Tong Jiang,Zengxin Zhang,Rui Kong

doi:10.3390/su12104202

Abstract

The shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) were designed to project future socioeconomic developments as they might unfold in the absence of explicit additional policies and measures to limit climate forcing or to enhance adaptive capacity. Based on the sixth national population census and the third economic census data of China in 2010, this paper projects the population and economic conditions of the Yangtze River basin from 2010 to 2100 under the SSPs. The results showed that: (1) the population growth rate in most areas of the Yangtze River basin will decrease from 2021 to 2100. The population of the eastern Sichuan Province will decrease obviously, while it will increase obviously in Shanghai during this period. The population of the Yangtze River basin will decline from 2010 to 2100 under the SSPs except for SSP3; (2) The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in most regions will increase by more than CNY 30 billion (Chinese Yuan) compared with 2010 and the total GDP will continue to rise after 2020; (3) The population of the three major urban agglomerations will decrease from 2020 to 2100. However, the GDP of the three major urban agglomerations will increase year by year, among which the YRDUA (Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration) has obvious economic advantages. The GDP growth rate will maintain above 6% in 2020 under different SSPs, and then the growth rate will slow down or stall, even with negative growth in SSP1 and SSP4; (4) The GDP Per of the Yangtze River basin shows growth under different SSPs and it will maintain a growth rate of 6–9% until 2020. While the average annual growth rate of the SSP5 will be about 2.56% at the end of the 21st century, and it will remain at about 1% under other scenarios. This paper provides a scientific basis for the study of future population and socioeconomic changes and climate predictions for quantifying disaster risks.

Highlights

The continuous growth of the global population and economy has brought unprecedented pressure on the climate environment [1,2,3]
The United Nations model is used to predict the proportion of urban population and is not suitable for studying the population trend of the Yangtze River basin
Hubei province and Shanghai city were selected as representative provinces to verify the statistical data and the estimated results under the SSP2

Summary

Introduction

The continuous growth of the global population and economy has brought unprecedented pressure on the climate environment [1,2,3]. Scenarios are used to help people understand the long-term consequences of short-term decisions, and scholars can explore future possibilities in the context of future uncertainty. This is an important part of climate change research and assessment [4]. Describing the link between radiation forcing and socio-economic development plays an important role in the impact assessment of climate change and related climate policy formulation [6]. In the context of global warming, combining population and economic development with the formulation of policies for the mitigation and adaptation of climate change, the study of future population and socio-economic changes is as important as the quantification of disaster risk by climate prediction

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Results

Conclusion