Popularity of the cult of Asclepius in the times of the Antonine Plague: Temporal modeling of epigraphic evidence

Abstract

The research presented in the article tests quantitatively the existing hypothesis from the academic debate that the Greco-Roman cult of Asclepius was more popular in the times of the Antonine Plague which spread in the Roman Empire approximately in the years 165–180 CE. This hypothesis is based on the rationale that the god of medicine, Asclepius, could have been more appealing to the Roman population in times of health crisis. However, there are also voices in the debate arguing that there is no indication of an increase in popularity of the cult of Asclepius during the Antonine Plague. The article explores this question quantitatively by means of temporal modeling of epigraphic evidence from the Roman Empire, i.e., the primary material source for arguments in the academic debate on the topic. By employing Monte Carlo algorithms to simulate the temporal distributions of Latin inscriptions from epigraphic databases, the article demonstrates that there is no observable increase in the number of inscriptions dedicated to Asclepius in the times of the Antonine Plague that would deviate significantly from the temporal distribution of a) general epigraphic trend as represented by epigraphic databases Epigraphic Database Heidelberg and Clauss-Slaby Epigraphic Database, and b) inscriptions dedicated to other deities such as Apollo or Jupiter Optimus Maximus. The hypothesized increased popularity of the cult of Asclepius during the Antonine Plague is thus not supported by the results on the level of epigraphic trends. These findings have a significant potential to push forward the discussion which is divided by mutually opposing hypotheses that were constructed mainly by traditional historiographical approaches. The article also reveals the applicability of quantitative approaches in overcoming temporal uncertainties in archaeological data.