Pooling of intra-site measurements inflates variability of the correlation between environmental DNA concentration and organism abundance.

Abstract

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis can promote efficient ecosystem monitoring and resource management. However, limited knowledge of the factors affecting the relationship between eDNA concentration and organism abundance causes uncertainty in relative abundance estimates based on eDNA concentration. Pooling of data points obtained from multiple locations within a site has been used to mitigate intra-site variation in eDNA and abundance estimates, but decreases the sample size used for estimating the relationship. I here assessed how the pooling of intra-site measurements of eDNA concentration and organism abundance impacted the reliability of the correlative relationship between eDNA concentration and organism abundance. Mathematical models were developed to simulate measurements of eDNA concentrations and organism abundances from multiple locations in a given survey site, and the CVs (coefficient of variability) of the correlations were compared depending on whether data points from different locations were individually treated or pooled. Although the mean and median values of the correlation coefficients were similar between the scenarios, the CVs of the simulated correlations were substantially higher under the pooled scenario than the individual scenario. Additionally, I re-analyzed two empirical studies conducted in lakes, both showing higher CVs of the correlations by pooling intra-site measurements. This study suggests that it would make eDNA-based abundance estimation more reliable and reproducible to individually analyze target eDNA concentrations and organism abundance estimates.