Pool dynamics of time-dependent compartmental systems with application to the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Abstract

Compartmental models play an important role to describe the dynamics of systems that involve mass movements between different types of pools. We develop a theory to analyse the average ages of mass in different pools in a linear compartmental system with time-dependent (i.e. non-autonomous) transfer rates, which involves transit times that characterize the average time a particle has spent in a particular pool. We apply our theoretical results to investigate a nine-dimensional compartmental system with time-dependent fluxes between pools modelling the carbon cycle which is a modification of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach model. Knowledge of transit time and mean age allows calculation of carbon storage in a pool as a function of time. The general result that has important implications for understanding and managing carbon storage is that the change in storage in different pools does not change monotonically through time: as rates change monotonically a pool which initially shows a decrease may then show an increase in storage or vice versa. Thus caution is needed in extrapolating even the direction of future changes in storage in carbon storage in different pools with global change.