Estimating the change of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere from 18 000 BP to present using a carbon cycle model

Abstract

The authors used a global High Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM), consisting of a biome model and a carbon cycle model, to estimate the changes of carbon storage in the major pools of the terrestrial biosphere from 18 000 BP to present. The climate change data to drive the biosphere for 18 000 BP were derived from an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Using the AGCM anomalies interpolated to a 0·5° grid, the HRBM data base of the present climate was recalculated for 18 000 BP. The most important processes which influenced the carbon storage include (1) climate-induced changes in biospheric processes and vegetation distribution, (2) the CO 2 fertilization effect, (3) the inundation of lowland areas resulting from the sea level rise of 100 m. Two scenarios were investigated. The first scenario, which ignored the CO 2 fertilization effect, led to total carbon losses from the terrestrial biosphere of −460 × 10 9 t. Scenario 2, which assumed that the model formulation of the CO 2 fertilization effect as used for preindustrial to present could be extrapolated to the glacial 200 μl litre −1 (ppmv, parts per million per volume), gave a carbon fixation in the terrestrial biosphere of +213 × 10 9 t. The two scenarios were compared with CO 2 concentration data and isotopic ratios from air in ice cores. The results of Scenario 1 are not in agreement with the data. Scenario 2 gives realistic δ 13C shifts in the atmosphere but the biospheric carbon storage at the end of the glacial period seems too large. The authors suggest that the low atmospheric CO 2 concentration may have favoured the C-4 plants in ice age vegetation types. As a consequence the influence of the low CO 2 concentration was eventually reduced and the glacial carbon storage in vegetation, litter, and soil was increased.