Polymer-specific dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis of seven polymers in Europe from 1950 to 2016

Abstract

Information on the flows of specific polymers through the anthroposphere forms the basis of any assessment of the environmental implications of plastic. This work presents a dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis of seven commodity thermoplastics: low-density polyethylene (LDPE), high-density polyethylene (HDPE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS), expanded polystyrene (EPS), polyvinylchloride (PVC), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). The analysis examines nine product sectors and 35 product categories, including textiles, across Europe from 1950 to 2016. Total consumption of these seven polymers was 90.0 ± 4.8 kg/cap in 2016. The in-use stock that year was 47 kg/cap for LDPE, 81 kg/cap for HDPE, 81 kg/cap for PP, 21 kg/cap for PS, 56 kg/cap for EPS, 163 kg/cap for PVC, and 16 kg/cap for PET. For EPS and PVC, the fraction contained in the in-use stock is 51% and 39% of the total production. Landfill is the major compartment where LDPE, HDPE, PP, PS, and PET end up (48%–60%). Elimination—incineration and destruction in waste incineration plants—occurs for 15%–19% of LDPE, HDPE, PP, PS, and PET, and 10% of EPS and PVC. Current European recycling rates vary from 11% for PS to 33% for PET. The precise separation of different polymers into very detailed product categories will allow the formulation of future scenarios about interventions to improve the circularity of specific polymers and provide the basis to assess the polymer-specific releases to the environment.