Abstract
AbstractAimWe compare the performance of habitat suitability models using climate data only or climate data together with water chemistry, land cover and predation pressure data to model the distribution of European grayling (Thymallus thymallus). From these models, we (a) investigate the relationship between habitat suitability and genetic diversity; (b) project the distribution of grayling under future climate change; and (c) model the effects of habitat mitigation on future distributions.LocationUnited Kingdom.MethodsMaxent species distribution modelling was implemented using a Simple model (only climate parameters) or a Full model (climate, water chemistry, land use and predation pressure parameters). Areas of high and low habitat suitability were designated. Associations between habitat suitability and genetic diversity for both neutral and adaptive markers were examined. Distribution under minimal and maximal future climate change scenarios was modelled for 2050, incorporating projections of future flow scenarios obtained from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. To examine potential mitigation effects within habitats, models were run with manipulation of orthophosphate, nitrite and copper concentrations.ResultsWe mapped suitable habitat for grayling in the present and the future. The Full model achieved substantially higher discriminative power than the Simple model. For low suitability habitat, higher levels of inbreeding were observed for adaptive, but not neutral, loci. Future projections predict a significant contraction of highly suitable areas. Under habitat mitigation, modelling suggests that recovery of suitable habitat of up to 10% is possible.Main conclusionsExtending the climate‐only model improves estimates of habitat suitability. Significantly higher inbreeding coefficients were found at immune genes, but not neutral markers in low suitability habitat, indicating a possible impact of environmental stress on evolutionary potential. The potential for habitat mitigation to alleviate distributional changes under future climate change is demonstrated, and specific recommendations are made for habitat recovery on a regional basis.
Highlights
Human ecosystem alteration, such as habitat loss and degradation, invasive species and overharvesting, can cause environmental stress (Brown, Saunders, Possingham, & Richardson, 2013; Crain, Kroeker, & Halpern, 2008), which can directly impair the adaptive potential of populations and increase vulnerability to extinction (Charmantier & Garant, 2005; Frankham, 2005; Hoffmann & Hercus, 2000)
We found that inbreeding coefficients (FIS) were significantly higher in areas identified as low suitability habitats for adaptive
Reducing non-climate-related environmental stress has been highlighted to be among the most important management action in the face of climate change (Heller & Zavaleta, 2009). This is stressed by the findings on low habitat suitability impacting on adaptive genetic variation and likely evolutionary potential, which is thought to be capable to promote climate change adaptation in salmonids (Eliason et al, 2011)
Summary
Human ecosystem alteration, such as habitat loss and degradation, invasive species and overharvesting, can cause environmental stress (Brown, Saunders, Possingham, & Richardson, 2013; Crain, Kroeker, & Halpern, 2008), which can directly impair the adaptive potential of populations and increase vulnerability to extinction (Charmantier & Garant, 2005; Frankham, 2005; Hoffmann & Hercus, 2000) These stressors are thought to be impacting biodiversity in a way comparable to historic mass extinction events (Ceballos et al, 2015) with unprecedented declines in global biodiversity occurring. The investigation of differences in habitat quality may serve as a predictive framework to assess evolutionary potential across the range of a species because there is a close relationship between environmental conditions and genetic diversity (Charmantier & Garant, 2005; Frankham, 2005; Hoffmann & Hercus, 2000)
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