Polls and Elections: Did Character Count? Candidate Traits and the 2016 Presidential Vote

Abstract

AbstractThe 2016 presidential election featured two candidates whose personal qualities Americans held in exceptionally low regard. Voters perceived Hillary Clinton to be knowledgeable, but dishonest. Assessments of Donald Trump were historically poor across the board. Because both candidates suffered from voter perceptions of their weak character, campaign attacks and media coverage combined to elevate character to a leading campaign issue. Yet our analysis of American National Election Studies data indicates that while voters were influenced by their perceptions of candidate character, only a small number of votes were changed by these perceptions. This is because candidate traits are more strongly determined by party identification than ever before, and because increasing party polarization has led to there being fewer genuinely persuadable voters than in past elections.