Poll-Based Forecasts of the House Vote in Presidential Election Years

Abstract

We use the distribution of responses to the Gallup poll's "generic" House vote question (i.e., "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you like to see win in your congressional district?") to forecast the Republican-Democratic vote split in presidential year congressional elections. Although these responses consistently offer an overly optimistic picture of the Democrats' prospects, they nonetheless serve as the basis of accurate forecasts.