Political Parties, Elections and Electoral Uncertainty in Post-Transition Nigeria: A Study of the 2015 Presidential Election

Abstract

Contemporary political parties across the democratic world now compete in extremely volatile electoral markets marked by declining voter loyalties. Indeed, this is increasingly becoming the conventional wisdom and political parties have devised varying strategies to cope with the challenge posed by voter dealignment. Extant literature on political parties and electoral change focuses almost exclusively 011 the experiences of advanced ‘western democracies with little or no attention given to such research in developing countries. Therefore, there is a need to undertake research that documents the nature of electoral uncertainty in transiting democracies, how political parties in emergent democracies perceive these uncertainties and the character of part)’ responses to the electoral challenges. This study investigates electoral uncertainties in Nigeria with a specific focus on the 2015 presidential election. The study is essentially qualitative relying on data generated from the literature and official results of elections. Using the two leading political parties in the 20 f 5 presidential polls as subject of analysis, the paper examines the context of the presidential vote, the unpredictability of the electoral market 011 offer as well as responses developed by the two parties to confront the uncertainties.