Political influence structures in a future substitution bioeconomy transition: A focus on the food sector

Abstract

Transitioning to a bioeconomy involves multiple actors, institutions, and sectors. Transition stakeholder domains work independently with each being guided by their own governance/policy-regimes. However, domains are interdependent, fostering competition and alliance forming. This makes transitions inherently political with lobbying influencing trajectories. With food production, bioeconomy transitions trend towards appropriationism (technologies contribute to existing supply chains) or substitutionism (replacement of end-products with facsimiles), which is disruptive to existing interests. Given bioeconomic stakeholder complexity and lobbying, understanding political influence on bioeconomy transitions is critical. This futures study employs systems engineering approaches and SPADE methodology to examine the issue of substitutionism within the food sector of the bioeconomy. We applied causal mapping of political structures in bioeconomic transitions based on the case of renewable energy political lobbying, identifying three key political feedback structures influencing a substitutionism bioeconomy transition: Technological Lock-in Balancing Loop; Original Lobbying Reinforcing Loop and Substitution Lobbying Reinforcing Loop. The influence of these structures on policy/regulation are then discussed.