Political Future of Migrants in Russia: Hypotheses and Models

Abstract

The political prospects of migrants in Russia are not only an urgent problem, but also require a comprehensive scientific analysis based on the achievements of modern political science. For this reason, the paper attempts to provide scientific and methodological justification and research on the participation of migrants in future political processes. Based on migration dynamics and features of migration behavior, a model-hypothesis - variants and scenarios of political participation of migrants in Russia has been developed. The model includes the following elements: personal and group strategies for the migration future; the trajectory and nature of political participation of migrants; ideological preferences and political attitudes; the content of the political culture of the migration community; the target expectations of migrants in the political sphere; the level of involvement of migrants in civil society institutions; the level of political activity of migrants and leaders of the migration community; the readiness of indigenous people to allow migrants to political processes; the position of the state and government institutions to political claims from migrants. Thus, based on the methodology of contextual instrumentalism, the methodological basis of the political forecast of the future of migrants in Russia is presented, taking into account the basic migration factors and trends, and the main directions of scientific search for ways to verify the formulated hypothesis are also identified.