Political destability and economic crisis have produced population losses in Albania

Abstract

Since the early 1990s, Albania has entered the path of transition from a monist country of Stalinist socialism and a central planning economy to a country of liberal democracy and a free market economy. This journey has produced, in addition to economic and political freedoms for citizens and everything positive that comes from them, also negative phenomena for society. One of the most evident is the significant decline of the resident population in the country. As we will see in this paper, the population decline during the transition years has come as a result of the two most important contributing components to the country’s demographic level: (i) external migration; and (ii) lowering the birth rate. While external migration is directly reflected in the decline of the country’s resident population, the decline in fertility has an indirect impact because together with the death rate they shape the level of natural population growth. Both of these together, external migration and the level of natural population growth, directly shape the demographic level of the country. This paper observes these two important indicators in a historical dynamic, starting from the 15th century, a time when we can find published information and statistics. In this time context, the paper analyzed the statistics collected in relation to these two demographic indicators, and found that there is a very clear link between the increase in external migration and the decrease in the Synthetic Fertility Index (ISF) with political and economic crises. which the Albanian society has faced during the period under observation. Every time a political instability has been presented, starting from the second half of the 15th century until today, so many times Albanians have left the country. Likewise, the difficult economic situation (i) between the years 1960-1990 of the last century, as a result of the central planning economy, and (ii) the difference between the high economic expectations of the citizens and the actual economic reality in the country along years of transition, have resulted in a steady decline in ISF.