Demographic and migration processes of labor potential: a case study the agricultural sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Abstract

It is very important to study the demographic and migration processes in the country when forming the labor potential of rural areas. Using these indicators affecting the labor potential, we calculated the parameters of linear trend models, checking their adequacy of the constructed models, calculated the determination coefficients, and built confidential intervals for the forecasts. In order to present a quantitative model expressing the general tendency of the time series change over time, we used the analytical alignment of the time series. In this case, the actual levels were replaced by levels calculated on the basis of certain data. As a result, we got the result of a change in time of the studied indicators in a positive direction. Obtained results: outflow of external and internal migration is the reason for the decline of labor potential in the country, but in general does not affect the efficiency of labor potential of the village; indicators of the population in general, i.e., the population of cities and villages, internal and external migration with natural population growth are quite close to one, what means that their forecast changes are insignificant and do not undergo significant changes in the future. Finally, with a 95% probability, we can expect that in 2020 - 2021, the indicators under consideration will not take values less than the lower limits of confidence forecast intervals and not greater than their upper limits. Obtain results are very important for development of a strategy for the effective use of labor potential.