Abstract

Political and social situations are usually too complex and poorly defined for most mathematical techniques of analysis. Yet political and social forecasting can be very important to individuals, companies and even nations. Conflict analysis is a quantitative technique which is useful for the modeling and prediction of complex political and social problems. In this paper, the basic components of a conflict model are described. The method of analyzing a conflict model and relating it to the real world situation is also explained. In order to demonstrate the procedure, the 1984 US Presidential election campaign is used as an illustrative example.

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