Policy impact of the Indonesian Central Bank certificate related on loan interest rate to the demand growth of property

Abstract

The Indonesian economic indicators shown a positive progress in the last three years, Foreign exchange reserves position of the end of March 2017 stood at US $ 121.8 billion higher than the position of the end of 2015 amounted to US $ 105.9 billion of the end of 2015. This reserve would ensure the resilience and maintaining sustainable Indonesian economic growth in the future. Although Indonesia’s foreign exchange is better, the structure of expenditure in the country is still less than ideal due the proportion of spending of consumer goods is far greater than the capital goods and tend to be unproductive spending. This needs to be regulated so that in the long term does not cause balance of payments deficit. Therefore, Indonesian Central Bank took a policy to raise interest rates for retail banks from 6% to 7.25% per annum gradually up to present. Policies relating to the interest rates on loans are intended to reduce the proportion of debt financing of consumer goods, however, these policies have implications to various economic sectors and one of those is property sector. A lot of research has been conducted related the impact of loan interest to the property sector but most of it is still in partial related to the ability the people to buy. However, this research has tried to see the implication of the macro Economic Policy of Indonesian Central Bank to the property sector as a systemic problem. This paper is going to present the study on the effects of these policies on the property sector, especially residence house. To obtain a comprehensive analysis and capture the relationship between interest rate policies and their impacts to the property sector, in this study the model developed and simulated using system dynamic methodology as an approach. Various scenarios are applied to the model to get an accurate information about how and when the effectiveness of the policy related to the property sector can be enforced. The result of this study can be delivered to the policy maker as feed-back to improving the policies related the interest rate.