Abstract
This article analyses whether feedback effects of incremental policy adjustments over time may lead to a shift in policy paradigm. It is argued that unforeseen and underestimated consequences of adjustments may change the perceived distributional effects and thus change stakeholders' policy interests. Further, adjustments may change the policy context so that the distance to policies involving a paradigm shift is reduced. Focusing on EU agricultural policy, it is analysed why the bond scheme, which would involve a gradual paradigm shift, was given limited attention in the MacSharry reform of 1992. It is shown that the bond scheme was rejected because farm interests were closely linked to the then CAP. The MacSharry reform has produced feedback effects which have diminished support of the CAP and motivated the EU to introduce new policy measures. These have moved the CAP closer to the bond scheme, and thus paradigm shift.
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