Abstract
In the aftermath of shock events, policy responses tend to be crafted under significant time constraints and high levels of uncertainty. The extent to which individuals comply with different policy designs can further influence how effective the policy responses are and how equitably their impacts are distributed in the population. Tools which allow policymakers to model different crisis trajectories, policy responses, and behavioral scenarios ex ante can provide crucial timely support in the decision-making process. Set in the context of COVID-19 shelter in place policies, in this paper we present the COVID-19 Policy Evaluation (CoPE) tool, which is an agent-based modeling framework that enables researchers and policymakers to anticipate the relative impacts of policy decisions. Specifically, this framework illuminates the extent to which policy design features and behavioral responsiveness influence the efficacy and equity of policy responses to shock events. We show that while an early policy response can be highly effective, the impact of the timing is moderated by other aspects of policy design such as duration and targeting of the policy, as well as societal aspects such as trust and compliance among the population. More importantly, we show that even policies that are more effective overall can have disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations. By disaggregating the impact of different policy design elements on different population groups, we provide an additional tool for policymakers to use in the design of targeted strategies for disproportionately affected populations.
Highlights
Shock events–including crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic–have three common characteristics–a threat to shared values, a sense of urgency, and high degrees of uncertainty [1]
Set in the context of COVID-19 shelter in place policies, in this paper we present the COVID-19 Policy Evaluation (CoPE) tool, which is an agent-based modeling framework that enables researchers and policymakers to anticipate the relative impacts of policy decisions
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the CoPE tool and illuminate the extent to which policy design configurations and behavioral responsiveness influence the efficacy and equity of policy responses to shock events
Summary
Shock events–including crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic–have three common characteristics–a threat to shared values, a sense of urgency, and high degrees of uncertainty [1]. Policy and behavioral response to shock events. Four categories of core ideas are discussed –policy design, behavioral response, outcome evaluation, and modeling approach. We discuss how policymakers implement a wide range of policy designs during shock events in general and COVID-19 in particular, often with limited ability to understand and anticipate the potential impacts on these policies on the local communities and across socio-demographics. We highlight the evaluation of the distributional equity of policy outcomes before the policy is implemented, an important but often challenging endeavor. We develop and make a case for deploying tools that can help policymakers model the suite of policy design options and individual behavioral feedback mechanisms together, with the objective of facilitating an ex-ante evaluation of the effectiveness and equity of these policy designs
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