Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation

Tomas Baležentis,Mangirdas Morkūnas,Dalia Štreimikienė,Erika Ribašauskienė,Artiom Volkov,Agnė Žičkienė

doi:10.3390/su132111899

Tomas Baležentis, Mangirdas Morkūnas + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111899

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Journal: Sustainability	Publication Date: Oct 28, 2021
Citations: 9	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Lithuanian Social Research Centre

Abstract

This paper proposes an integrated approach towards rapid decision-making in the agricultural sector aimed at improvement of its resilience. Methodologically, we seek to devise a framework that is able to take the uncertainty regarding policy preferences into account. Empirically, we focus on the effects of COVID-19 on agriculture. First, we propose a multi-criteria decision-making framework following the Pugh matrix approach for group decision-making. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to check the effects of the perturbations in the criteria weights. Then, we identify the factors behind agricultural resilience and organize them into the three groups (food security, agricultural viability, decent jobs). The expert survey is carried out to elicit the ratings in regard to the expected effects of the policy measures with respect to dimensions of agricultural resilience. The case of Lithuania is considered in the empirical analysis. The existing and newly proposed agricultural policy measures are taken into account. The measures related to alleviation of the financial burden (e.g., credit payment deferral) appear to be the most effective in accordance with the expert ratings.

Highlights

Food security remains a key concept for agricultural policy in both developing and developed countries to ensure the livelihood of their populations
The recent crisis related to the COVID-19 pandemic stressed the need for securing the objectives of food security
This paper proposes an multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework for rapid decision analysis for agricultural resilience improvements

Summary

Introduction

Food security remains a key concept for agricultural policy in both developing and developed countries to ensure the livelihood of their populations. Governments worldwide allocate public support for the agricultural sector. The effective use of public support is an important issue for both researchers and policymakers. The recent crisis related to the COVID-19 pandemic stressed the need for securing the objectives of food security. The ripple effect caused disturbances in the supply chains across the globe [1,2]. In such a context, agricultural resilience appears as a focal point for research and policymaking [3]

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