Poland as a Transit Country for Russian Natural Gas: Potential for Conflicts

Abstract

International energy trade has caused conflicts in the past. This study focuses on the potential for conflict and co-operation in Eurasian pipeline politics. The term ‘Eurasia’ is used in international politics to refer to the states of the former Soviet Union. Here it also includes the countries of Central Europe, which are major transit countries to one of the main consumer markets for oil and gas: the European Union (EU). The major oil and gas producer in Eurasia is the Russian Federation.In modern, industrial societies, which are mostly net energy importers, energy security has become essential for economic welfare and political stability. Therefore, energy policy, including pipeline policy, is strongly linked with security and foreign policy. In general, the use of economic means and cross-border trade as an instrument of foreign policy is neither new nor uncommon (cf. e.g., Hirschman 1945/ 1980).Gas transit is a sensitive issue, particularly in a crisis-prone region such as the area formerly known as the Soviet Union. Strategic power games and geopolitical issues seem to dominate ‘pure’ economic theory when it comes to determining transit fees, capacities, investment projects and other related issues. The intertwining of foreign and energy policy by Russia has often led to conflicts with countries in Eurasia. They have accused Russia of using its energy supplies as a “weapon” to undermine their independence.This working paper examines Poland’s role as a transit country for Russian natural gas to Western Europe and the involved potential for conflict. After the presentation of the theoretical framework and methods, the two main actors – Poland and the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom – will be introduced in Chapter 3. The following chapter describes how Poland became a transit country for Russian gas and how the conflict around the Yamal pipeline evolved. Chapter 5 focuses on Gazprom’s latest pipeline project, the ‘Nord Stream’ pipeline underneath the Baltic Sea. In the concluding chapter, the conflict structures are explained and the underlying mental models are elaborated upon.