Poisson spatial autoregressive (SAR) for estimating factors influencing covid-19

Abstract

People was afraid to engage in activities outside the home because of Covid-19, which has affected several countries throughout the world, but these activities must be carried out so that people's needs can still be met. The community must abide by established health protocol standards, such as wearing masks, washing hands, and keeping a safe distance, in order to carry out this activity. Interactions between communities that invected by Covid-19 to other communities can transmit the disease. This interactions not only happen betwen sub division and sub region but also happen in larger area for example between provinces. Thus make the Covid-19 spread rapidly and easily. The existence of a relationship between location areas that affect the response variable can be referred to as Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR). Based on the model, the dominant factors that causing the significant case of Covid-19 infected patients on the island of Sumatra are: income, local temperature and compliance of keeping save distance. The coefficient ? of 0.28309, interprets that the number of Covid-19 patient is affected by the province that surrounds it by 0.28309 times.