Poaceae pollen season and associations with meteorological parameters in Moscow, Russia, 1994–2016

Abstract

This study aimed at investigating the main features of the Poaceae pollen season and the relation to meteorological parameters as well as the production of a forecasting model. Pollen data were recorded in Moscow, Russia, during 1994–2016 (except 1997 and 1998). Pollen data were collected by volumetric spore trap. Correlation analysis was used to study relationships between various parameters of pollen seasons. Simple linear regression analysis was conducted to investigate trends over time; multiple stepwise regression analysis was used to describe fluctuations in the start date and in seasonal pollen integral (SPIn) as a function of monthly and cumulative climatic parameters. The forecasting model for the start date predicts 72% variability. The mean temperature in April and May and mean humidity in May are the main variables for forecasting the start of the Poaceae pollen season. The SPIn cannot be predicted with pre-seasonal temperature, humidity or rainfall.