Abstract
Climate change and human impact on vegetation modify the timing and the intensity of the pollen season. The 50 years of pollen monitoring in Basel, Switzerland provide a unique opportunity to study long-term changes in pollen data. Since 1969, pollen monitoring has been carried out in Basel with a Hirst-type pollen trap. Pollen season parameters for start dates, end dates and duration were calculated with different pollen season definitions, which are commonly used in aerobiology. Intensity was analyzed by the annual pollen integral (APIn), peak value and the number of days above specific thresholds. Linear trends were calculated with the non-parametric Mann Kendall method with a Theil-Sen linear trend slope. During the last 50 years, linear increase of the monthly mean temperatures in Basel was 0.95–1.95°C in the 3 winter months, 2–3.7°C in spring months and 2.75–3.85°C in summer months. Due to this temperature increase, the start dates of the pollen season for most of the spring pollen species have advanced, from 7 days for Poaceae to 29 days for Taxus/Cupressaceae. End dates of the pollen season depend on the chosen pollen season definition. Negative trends predominate, i.e., the pollen season mostly ends earlier. Trends in the length of the pollen season depend even more on the season definitions and results are contradictory and often not significant. The intensity of the pollen season of almost all tree pollen taxa increased significantly, while the Poaceae pollen season did not change and the pollen season of herbs decreased, except for Urticaceae pollen. Climate change has a particular impact on the pollen season, but the definitions used for the pollen season parameters are crucial for the calculation of the trends. The most stable results were achieved with threshold definitions that indicate regular occurrence above certain concentrations. Percentage definitions are not recommended for trend studies when the annual pollen integral changed significantly.
Highlights
The number of published pollen season trend studies increased since the 1990s when changing temperatures and changing pollen season parameters became more and more obvious [1,2,3]
That the pollen season definition has a strong influence on trends of the pollen season parameters and on studies analyzing influencing factors of climate change
Most clear signals of influences of climate change were observed for start dates
Summary
The number of published pollen season trend studies increased since the 1990s when changing temperatures and changing pollen season parameters became more and more obvious [1,2,3]. Other direct and indirect parameters of climate change like increasing CO2 concentrations and changes in air pollution can affect the plant physiology, the pollen grains and their allergenicity [8]. All these makes allergy one of the major health effects resulting from a changing climate [8, 9]. Changes in the pollen season characteristics, like increased intensity and longer duration, directly impacts the symptoms of allergic people or can lead to increased sensitization to specific pollen types [10, 11]
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