Abstract
Estimation of the potential of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles’ (PHEV’s) ability to reduce U.S. gasoline use is difficult and complex. Although techniques have been proposed to estimate the vehicle kilometers of travel (VKT) that can be electrified, these methods may be inadequate and/or inappropriate for early market introduction circumstances. Factors that must be considered with respect to the PHEV itself include (1) kWh battery storage capability; (2) kWh/km depletion rate of the vehicle (3) liters/km use of gasoline (4) average daily kilometers driven (5) annual share of trips exceeding the battery depletion distance (6) driving cycle(s) (7) charger location [i.e. on-board or off-board] (8) charging rate. Each of these factors is actually a variable, and many interact. Off the vehicle, considerations include (a) primary overnight charging spot [garage, carport, parking garage or lot, on street], (b) availability of primary and secondary charging locations [i.e. dwellings, workplaces, stores, etc] (c) time of day electric rates (d) seasonal electric rates (e) types of streets and highways typically traversed during most probable trips depleting battery charge [i.e. city, suburban, rural and high vs. low density]; (f) cumulative trips per day from charger origin (g) top speeds and peak acceleration rates required to make usual trips. Taking into account PHEV design trade-off possibilities (kW vs. kWh of battery, in particular), this paper attempts to extract useful information relating to these topics from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), and the 2005 American Housing Survey (AHS). Costs per kWh of PHEVs capable of charge depleting (CD) all-electric range (CDE, or AER) vs. those CD in “blended” mode (CDB) are examined. .Lifetime fuel savings of alternative PHEV operating/utilization strategies are compared to battery cost estimates.
Highlights
The 2001 report by Graham et al discusses two methods of evaluating the potential for a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) to substitute electrically driven kilometers for kilometers fueled by gasoline [1]
The 2001 EPRI report stated that “the SAE subcommittee used National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) to determine mileage weighted probability (MWP) for all possible all-electric ranges from 0 to 500 miles at one mile intervals. They weighted these MWPs by all electric range, which resulted in Utility Factors (UF) ...that were less than the standard MWP.”
We found that the majority of kilometers of travel that could be satisfied by a PHEV operating in charge depleting (CD) mode – those in the “heart of the market” - were much greater for distances above ranges of 16 and 32 km
Summary
The 2001 report by Graham et al discusses two methods of evaluating the potential for a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) to substitute electrically driven kilometers for kilometers fueled by gasoline [1]. The advantage of rapid depletion is discussed later It appears that Anderman estimated power levels for his batteries for CDE cases as if he were trying to design a vehicle to completely assure that the engine would never be needed during CD mode, while the vehicle could accelerate as well as a standard vehicle when tested aggressively by auto enthusiast magazines. Anderman compared 25 and 40 kW blended mode cases to 140 kW all electric cases, a similar ratio It is peak, not average power that determines the battery and motor kW requirements to meet the requirements of these two driving cycles, so the ratio resulting from a comparison of Graham et al’s US06 estimate [1], and Sharer et al’s UDDS estimate [11] is about 2, not 4. Procedures for testing the converted Prius PHEVs, which follow procedures recommended by SAE, currently involve repeated UDDS tests, and repeated HWY tests [7]
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