Plant pathogen infection risk and climate change in the Nordic and Baltic countries

Abstract

Climate change and global warming are already affecting food production, and the impact is predicted to intensify in the future. Previous studies have been based on global data and have provided general information about climate change effects on food production. Regional high-resolution data are, however, needed to evaluate the effect of future scenarios of climate change to support strategic and tactical planning to safeguard food production. Here, we provide results on the future potential distribution range of fungal plant pathogens in the Nordic and Baltic countries. This is done using regional climate model data at 12.5 km horizontal resolution. The temperature dependent infection risk and species richness are calculated using data for 80 plant pathogens. Within the region the studied pathogens will in most cases thrive more and be more abundant in a warmer climate; leading to a longer infection risk season and the introduction of new pathogens. This applies to all emissions scenarios, even though the effects are stronger with high emissions. Our results indicate that plant diseases will increase, and this will negatively affect crop production and food security.