Planning for Industry in a Post-Industrial World

Abstract

Problem: Many metropolitan jurisdictions face contests over industrial land because growth in the industrial sector is slow while the office and retail sectors and population grow more rapidly. This article presents a methodology for planning and setting priorities for industrial land use under these circumstances. Purpose: This article describes an approach to evaluating market demand for industrial land, applied here to Prince George's County, MD, in order to determine which industrial areas could be rezoned to alternate uses without causing major employment and tax losses to the county. Methods: I led a team that included an urban planning colleague and graduate students in identifying three types of industrial land: economically healthy industrial districts; industrially zoned areas where there was evidence of conflict between industry and alternative residential, commercial, and office land uses; and areas zoned for industry where demand for industrial space and land was weak or nonexistent. The project used data from private data provider CoStar, the U.S. Department of Labor's Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, county zoning maps and tax records, Microsoft Map, and Google Map to assign each industrial district to one of five categories of demand, ranging from weakest (no history of industrial demand) to strongest (economically healthy industrial activity). Results and Conclusions: Two estimates, one based on the projected absorption rate of industrial land over the next 10 years, and one on the industrial acreage exhibiting evidence of weak demand, both suggest a similarly large surplus of industrial land in the county. Further, rezoning and redeveloping industrial districts in the three weakest demand categories would cause the county to lose little industrial employment. Thus, all analyses reach consistent conclusions that the county should release some industrially zoned land for other uses while protecting some that is essential to the local economy. Takeaway for Practice: This article presents a methodology for assessing industrial areas to determine where industrially zoned land could be rezoned at little loss to the local economy; where land use conflicts should be addressed with urban design or industrial land protections; and where industrial areas are economically healthy and important components of the regional economy. Comprehensive plans can improve the health of local economies by identifying districts where industrial activities are strong and essential to the regional economy and encouraging investment in those areas while accommodating and protecting them. Research Support: This research evolved out of two years of work for Prince George's County, MD, by a team from the University of Maryland's urban planning program, supported by the Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission.