Planning energy-water nexus systems based on a dual risk aversion optimization method under multiple uncertainties

Abstract

The severe shortage of water resources, increasing energy demand, and depleting fossil resources pose a great challenge for energy and water systems management. This study proposes a dual risk aversion optimization method – an energy water nexus system model, which can generate robust optimization solutions for water resource consumption, fossil energy resource allocation, electricity expansion and generation, electricity import, and analyze the effects of different policies and measures on energy and water nexus systems, as well as explore cost-effective plans for energy and water resources conservation and CO2 emissions reduction. The developed model can tackle the uncertain parameters shown as fuzzy sets and stochastic, control the feasibility robustness of the generated solution by capturing the risk of violating the objective and the constraints caused by stochastic and fuzzy uncertain parameters, as well as tackle issues of multi-objective tradeoffs of energy-water nexus systems. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was used to verify the proposed model, and the generated results indicate that: (i) the water resource consumption for electricity power generation is expected to increase by 10.29%–11.41% over the study horizon; (ii) coal-based power will be the major source of CO2 emissions, accounting for 95.55%–90.59%; (iii) promoting carbon tax and optimizing the electric power mix are effective measures for saving water and coal resources and mitigating CO2 emissions, but lead to higher system costs. The obtained results provide useful information for managers to balance the conflict among electricity demand, economic objective, and water resource shortage.