Planning and management of urban environment using the models of degradation theory

Abstract

Urban systems are the most complex multi-level objects. The construction and design of such systems is preceded by their analysis and deep study. The article considers the issue of long-term planning of urban systems. The planning is based on the forecast of evaluation of buildings, structures and other urban systems durability. The longevity forecast is proposed to be implemented on the basis of models of degradation theory. The theory of degradation is developed as a general energy method for estimating the longevity of objects. It is based on the law of conservation of energy. To analyze the longevity of urban environment, it is proposed to adopt the simplest model of theory of degradation. The proposed work provides an explanation for the description of proposed model. The urban environment is divided into a number of simpler systems. The more the degree of system separation into simpler ones, the more accurately one can describe the behavior of the entire system in time. Each simple system is described by the simplest model of degradation theory. The general behavior of the system is understood as a simple sum of individual degradation models. A feature of the proposed theory is that the simplest model can describe the entire system or the sum of its individual parts at once. The model makes it possible to consider the issue of equalizing the longevity of individual systems. The analysis of durability of a multicompartment building is taken as an example. In terms of analyzing the given example, individual stages of systems operation, that are still subject to discussion, are identified.