Abstract
The process of land degradation needs to be understood at various spatial and temporal scales in order to protect ecosystem services and communities directly dependent on it. This is especially true for regions in sub-Saharan Africa, where socio economic and political factors exacerbate ecological degradation. This study identifies spatially explicit land change dynamics in the Copperbelt province of Zambia in a local context using satellite vegetation index time series derived from the MODIS sensor. Three sets of parameters, namely, monthly series, annual peaking magnitude, and annual mean growing season were developed for the period 2000 to 2019. Trend was estimated by applying harmonic regression on monthly series and linear least square regression on annually aggregated series. Estimated spatial trends were further used as a basis to map endemic land change processes. Our observations were as follows: (a) 15% of the study area dominant in the east showed positive trends, (b) 3% of the study area dominant in the west showed negative trends, (c) natural regeneration in mosaic landscapes (post shifting cultivation) and land management in forest reserves were chiefly responsible for positive trends, and (d) degradation over intact miombo woodland and cultivation areas contributed to negative trends. Additionally, lower productivity over areas with semi-permanent agriculture and shift of new encroachment into woodlands from east to west of Copperbelt was observed. Pivot agriculture was not a main driver in land change. Although overall greening trends prevailed across the study site, the risk of intact woodlands being exposed to various disturbances remains high. The outcome of this study can provide insights about natural and assisted landscape restoration specifically addressing the miombo ecoregion.
Highlights
Understanding human-induced land degradation has become essential in order to identify drivers of loss of ecosystem services and reduced land productivity [1]
This paper focuses on the Copperbelt province of Zambia, located in the central north (Figure 1) on the Central African plateau, and covering an area of 31,328 km2
We make the following inferences from our study: (a) mosaic landscapes are dominant in the study site and hold potential for ecological restoration; (b) despite greening trends being dominant, degradation still poses huge concern since it is giving rise to long term browning trends over intact woodlands; (c) forests/plantations under managed conservation showed positive trends; they are highly susceptible to charcoal harvest; and (d) future intensified agriculture in the form of pivot and smallholder irrigation due to decreased land productivity on existing agricultural areas
Summary
Understanding human-induced land degradation has become essential in order to identify drivers of loss of ecosystem services and reduced land productivity [1]. 24% of the land area has been reported to be degraded [3], and in the case of drylands, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment [4] reports a degradation of 10% to 20%. This can result in serious implications for the 1.5 billion people who depend on these lands for their survival and sustenance [3]. The issue of land degradation and its remediation has been targeted in the 15th SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals) adopted at the United Nation Sustainable Development Summit in 2015
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