Pipeline Geo-Hazard Prediction and Early Warning During Summer Monsoon Based on GIS Technology

Abstract

In annual summer monsoon, geo-hazard is common. Monsoon-caused casualties and economic losses throughout the year accounted for 70% ∼ 80% of the total annual losses. Also, geo-hazard is a serious threat for pipeline operators to manage. Over 12,000 kilometers of pipelines with crude oil, gas, and refined oil are operated by PetroChina Pipeline Company. The pipelines, through sixteen provinces and cities, have been operated for over forty years. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, as an effective spatial analysis tool, provides advanced analysis for pipeline geo-hazard prediction and early warning during summer monsoon based on field data and historical precipitation records. After many years of research and applicaton of our prediction model of pipeline geo-hazard, an important link between geo-hazard and rainfall is understood. Rainfall is the main triggering factor of geo-hazards such as landslide and debris flow leading to heavy losses, especially rainstorm and heavy rainstorm. We use GIS technology to perform spatial analysis with predicted rainfall data the next twenty-four hours and the data of pipeline geo-hazard susceptibility, and predict the severity of pipeline impacts caused by geo-hazards during the next twenty-four hours. Finally, the result is modified by existed geo-hazards data. The pipeline geo-hazard early warning is divided into five ranks which are displayed by different colors, and pipelines damaged by geo-hazards and protection measures are also proposed. During July 16 and 17 of 2009 years, we released geo-hazard early warning four rank of Lanzhou-Chengdu-Chongqing Oil Pipeline through PetroChina Pipeline Company web page (http://www.gdgs.petrochina) and the communication software of IM. The Lanzhou-Chengdu-Chongqing Oil Pipeline Company acted promptly with a detailed deployment and emergency plan to ensure pipeline safety.