Pipe Life Prognosis in Water Distribution Networks using Reliable Data-based Approaches

Abstract

The assessment and prognosis of pipe life in water distribution networks has great potential in optimizing asset investment and protecting water resources. In the state-of-the-art, most of the research work about pipe life assessment focuses on revealing associated variables and regulations for the occurrence of pipe failures, which has scientific value but still far from assisting water industry directly in real operation. In order to provide a pipe life assessment and prognosis approach with practical significance, this paper presents: 1) a comparable approach to quantify impact of different factors (mainly age, material and diameter) on the occurrence of pipe failures using statistical reliability model based on cumulative Weibull distribution, survival model based on neural networks and evolutionary polynomial regression model for pipe deterioration; 2) a prognosis method for the remaining useful life of pipes using previous algorithms; 3) a maintenance and renewal plan of the network to assist daily operation of water operators by means of a checklist including risk levels (low, medium, high) under different factor ranges. The Barcelona water distribution network is used as a real life case study, demonstrating how the proposed approaches can be used.