Phytoplankton community assembly in a large boreal lake – deterministic pathways or chaotic fluctuations?

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Summary1. The concepts of community assembly and succession are closely related, yet their foci differ slightly. Succession describes the trajectory of species replacements during the temporal development of the community, while assembly also allows that a locality can harbour different communities depending on the events in the near past of community development.2. The aims of this study were (i) to examine the year‐to‐year variation in phytoplankton community assembly among basins of different trophy and disturbance in the large boreal Lake Hiidenvesi and (ii) to assess community persistence and diversity among basins in relation to prevailing environmental factors.3. The results showed that the assembly did not follow similar trajectories each year. According to mean similarity analyses, there was a large degree of variability especially among the groups of samples collected in the same months of different years. Similarity between pairs of consecutive samples was highest in a cold year (1998) in all basins. Community assembly was most unpredictable in the basin of highest productivity, perhaps implying that the number of alternative stable states increased towards higher productivity. Our data also showed a strong unimodal relationship between phytoplankton species richness and grazing by cladoceran zooplankton in the basin of highest trophy.4. This study showed that phytoplankton community assembly exhibited large variability among the years. This implies that different environmental conditions might be the strongest mechanism behind this pattern, given that the degree of community similarity paralleled the year‐to‐year variation in mean temperature. Unravelling the patterns in community assembly has a number of important implications, especially for the monitoring of ecological impacts based only on snapshots of biological assemblages.