Abstract
The Global Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS) by Rivas-Martínez is an effective approach to reflect and study the role of climate in determining the potential distribution of natural vegetation at various temporal and spatial scales. In particular, the diversity of physical characteristics in the Setifian high plains leads to the complexity of large-scale phytogeographic belts. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), have been created for the study area based on Rivas-Martínez's global bioclimatic classification system for current and future climate scenarios, using the parallel climate model from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) under the intermediate greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP4.5). Precipitation and temperature data from the "WorldClim" dataset were used as the data source. These climatic variables were reduced to a spatial resolution of 1 km. The objective is to understand how the climate is evolving in this region, what the consequences are, and what the future holds for these natural ecosystems. A phytosociological study complemented by satellite image analysis reveals a high diversity of pre-forestry formations. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and the magnitude of change, 2) identify and locate the new projected isobioclimates, and 3) explore the compositional changes in vegetation types among analogous isobioclimatic zones. The ordination of the relationships between vegetation and bioclimates shows a strong correlation between Rivas-Martinez indices and the distribution and composition of vegetation. Changes in ombrotype, thermotype, bioclimate, ombrotype, and isobioclimate differed between the current and future series. The resulting map presents 9 isobioclimatic units, which are advantageous for confirming the diagnosis of bioclimatic characteristics and describing the relationships between climatic variables and the corresponding distributions of natural vegetation. We identified eight different isobioclimates for the current period (1979-2013) and seven for the future period (2050), three thermotype horizons for both the current and future periods, and finally, four ombrotype horizons for the period (1979-2013), while two ombrohorizons represent the period (2050). This approach is useful for explaining territorial diversity in environmental applications related to ecological adaptation assessment, nature conservation, landscape regionalization, and planning.
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