Abstract
With wind power penetration increases, accurate and reliable wind power forecasting is becoming gradually critical, and data driven model is a promising solution to implement this task. However, limited by deficient data samples under extreme conditions, scarcity of feature measurements fails to meet the number of training samples required, making the forecasting model exhibits low adaptability. This paper proposes a physics-informed reinforcement learning based method for probabilistic forecasting. Analytical physical expression of wind power output under extreme event is established to construct the error evaluation function for abrupt feature. Deep deterministic policy gradient-based quantile fitting model is then proposed, with abrupt feature embedded as the auxiliary input data for neural network. On this basis, parameter training technique under small data set is proposed to deal with the effect of extreme conditions on correction process of network. It extracts key historical transitions from experience replay pool to establish effective training samples, and model parameters are updated through the small-batch learning strategy to minimize long-term error feedback. Test result on the practical cold wave event of wind farms in China shows effectiveness of the proposed method.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.