Physically based maximum precipitation estimation under future climate change conditions

Abstract

AbstractEstimation of the extreme precipitation over a target watershed under a changing climate would be necessary to design safe large hydraulic structures. For this purpose, the maximum precipitation (MP) estimation approach was applied to the American River Watershed (ARW) in Northern California under several future climate conditions over 90 water years (2010–2099). These future climate conditions were obtained using 13 future climate projections from two general circulation models (ECHAM5 and CCSM3) based on four future climate scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A1B, A1FI, A2, and B1). A total of 1,170 future projected severe storm events (90 years × 13 projections) were selected with respect to the 72‐hr basin‐average precipitation over the ARW. The 72‐hr basin‐average precipitation for each of the selected severe storm events was maximized over the ARW by horizontally shifting the atmospheric boundary conditions of a regional atmospheric model in order to optimize the path of the storm system that corresponded to the particular event. After maximization, the MP estimates, which are the largest precipitation depths among the maximized results, were obtained as 836.7 mm for the early half‐century period (2010–2054) and 1,056.5 mm for the late half‐century period (2055–2099).